Picture
Mike Goush (seated) with poll director Charles Franklin. photo courtesy Alex Rydin
With only a week left until the election, the Marquette Law School gathered together to release its final poll. The numbers predicted an 8 point victory for Obama, and a 4 point victory in the Wisconsin senate race for Tammy Baldwin.

While no poll can ever guarantee a victory for one candidate over another, this is certainly good news for democrats. The Marquette Law poll is considered by many to be accurate, and consistent leads for Obama that have been seen in the poll suggest increased potential for victory in the election Nov. 6.

It should be noted that Obama's 51%-43% lead in the poll is among likely voters. Many polls will simply show a lead among eligible voters, but that doesn't necessarily mean those people will vote on election day. By restricting the sample to those who are most likely to vote, the Marquette Law poll is able to increase the accuracy of its numbers.

There are other numbers in the poll that suggest that Obama will win on election day. The President holds a significant lead among early voters, as well as a lead among independents. The early voting numbers are important, especially to democratic candidates, because it increases the likelihood that low-income people will vote.

Independents always remain an important demographic because they represent the all important "swing voter." Swing voters are the group that will win the election for whichever candidate can convince the most to vote for them.
 





Leave a Reply.